• GMAP commissioned market surveys to capture over 250 location and facility attributes per forecourt. These included everything from average daily traffic counts to the length of the fridge shelving. 
• Statistical modelling was employed to build Scorecards for each of the four fuel types and the shop for each forecourt. This indicated the key performance drivers within the market, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each forecourt.
• The Scorecards were then used in combination with market indicators such as 'brand share' and 'brand perception' to estimate the fuel volumes and shop sales for each competitor nationally.
• The Scorecards and these additional parameters were then incorporated into GMAP’s Forecourt Model. This enabled multiple ‘Mass Tactic’ scenarios to be modelled, simulating differing investment levels of forecourt upgrades and alternative brand perceptions.
• Additional scenarios were run to understand whether the negative impacts on individual forecourts could be mitigated by adopting alternative branding.
• GMAP’s model was then embedded into an Online Solution that enabled the client to conduct on-going ‘what-if?’ scenario analysis. This empowered the client to model the impacts associated with a competitor forecourt opening, closing, upgrading or re-branding. 

The Conclusion

With GMAP’s insight, the client could critically assess both the macro and micro impact of re-incorporating forecourts back into their network, assessing various scenarios and where rationalisation would be necessary. The Online Solution enables the client to simulate ongoing owned and competitor forecourt market developments. The client can share scenarios with GMAP, facilitating impartial judgement and scenario ‘sign-off’.

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